Everything changes except change itself, especially when it comes to our economy.
In a recent article i read in the Wall Street Journal, by Mark Whitehouse, I am astonished at how laggard many economists are to finally have arrived at such a late conclusion. The title alone leads you to conclude "DUH!", "Crisis Compels Economists To Reach for New Paradigm". I am a business major at Kean University and study many aspects of economics which to some may seem boring but i find very fascinating. Yes I'm a nerd. Over the years as I studied all these theories and formulas that are extrapolated from past trends and then augmented to our knowledge of the economy I see a huge oversight. These theories and formulas are very limited and do not account for how turbulent the global society we live in today. It is nearly impossible to arrive at a safe hypothesis of our economy as we have seen evident in these troubled times.
This article speaks of how economist are now scrambling to gain the ground they lost in the field of credibility. Their only job was to predict the economy, and it is not as if a huge unpredictable crisis occurred that would excuse these latent predictions. Our economy has failed because we could not analyze our economy well and see such a catastrophic wave crashed on us due to Wall Street's money-making greed. Capitalism needs to slow down and make gains in moderation as to avoid a bad name in the world, especially if we want democracy to spread throughout the world. What were once considered paranoid economists, these few are now at the center of an economic revolution in thought. Mr. Geanakoplos is among a small band of academics offering new thinking about those cycles.
"These guys build a Rube Goldberg machine, then come back to the brilliant decision that maybe common sense is best after all. That deserves a Nobel prize, minimum." Mike Tannenbaum
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
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Very insightful comments Jerry, but don't you think that our lack of regulation also had something to do with the crash. I liked James B. Stewart's recent take on it in The New Yorker. Here's a link to an interview with him if you're interested:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2009/09/james-b-stewart-q-and-a.html
BTW, I was a fellow with Mark Whitehouse at Columbia. You're right; the guy is brilliant!